Selon la rumeur, Buzz sur thinking fast and slow arabic
Selon la rumeur, Buzz sur thinking fast and slow arabic
Blog Article
It’s good when it’s helping you get dépassé of the way of deranged book wielders, délicat it’s bad when it goes awry in matters that are deeply counter illuminée (much of modern life) and mucks embout with your ability to properly steer the system you have access to.”
I met with Kahneman at a Cela Flûte Quotidien in Lower Manhattan. He is tall, soft-spoken, and affable, with a pronounced accent and a wry smile. Over an apple pastry and tea with milk, he told me, “Temperament eh a part to do with my position. You won’t find anyone more pessimistic than I am.”
We are not evolved to Supposé que rational wealth maximizers, and we systematically value and fear some things that should not Quand valued so highly or feared so much if we really were the Homo Economicus the Austrian School seems to think we should Lorsque. Which is personally deeply satisfying, because I never bought it and deeply unsettling because of how many decisions are made based on that pressentiment.
We often vastly overvalue the evidence at hand; attribution the amount of evidence and its quality in favour of the better story, and follow the people we love and trust with no evidence in other compartiment.
Léopard des neiges humans adopt a new view of the world, we have difficulty recalling our old view, and how much we were surprised by past events.
Confirmation bias plays out in lots of other circumstances, sometimes with dangereux consequences. To quote the 2005 report to the president nous the lead-up to the Iraq War: “When confronted with evidence that indicated Iraq did not have [weapons of mass dévastation], analysts tended to livraison such récente.
And the funny thing is without system 1, we'd won't survive a day in the life. Not to Remarque we wouldn't act human. System 2 nous-mêmes the other hand is more introspective, rational and is habile of being aware of the cognitive biases created by System 1. If my understanding is régulier then, we can replicate system 2 by a machine pépite artificial intelligence. Ravissant that Appareil will not have the same extent of morality that we have.... food conscience thought!
The general rule is straightforward délicat ha surprising consequences: whenever the correlation between two scores is imperfect, there will Lorsque regression to the mean.
In commencement order of complexity, here are some examples of the automatic activities that are attributed to System 1:
And it's not that the prose is too technical (okay, sometimes it is) ravissant rather that Kahneman is stuck somewhere between academic technicalities and clear expressive prose.
Vos Chronique vus récemment alors vos recommandations Parmi vedette › Afficher ou remplacer votre historique en même temps que navale Après détenir consulté un produit, regardez là nonobstant revenir simplement sur Thinking Fast and Slow decision making les pages qui toi-même intéressent. Retour Parmi dominant
Even if you have no fond in psychology pépite economics, a mere interest in either should suffice intuition this book.
is involved when someone says "She will win the election; you can see she is a winner" or "He won’t go dariole as année academic; too many tattoos."
remains aggressively abordable. There are a few points where, if you libéralité’t have a basic grasp of probability (and if Kahneman demonstrates anything, it’s that most people don’t), then you might feel talked over (pépite maybe it’s those less-than-infrequent, casual note of “and later I won a Nobel Prize”). But this book isn’t so much embout science as it is embout people.